I’d like to emphasize again, that this model predicated the starting date of this current depression period to within a year though I first wrote it up about the year 1990. The chart below was mostly made about 2001, and the link to the abstract and summary of the book was written in the middle 1990s. Both of these show that I predicted a depression period for this decade and an economic boom starting about the year 2000. I’m writing this to tell people that the book I wrote 15 and 20 years ago predicted the major economic and scientific events well including the current 2010s depression period. .
I started editing and updating the book about two years ago. There are two parts explaining the theory for why the field of physics maintains an 80 year periodicity of paradigm change. The general theory when applied to economics explains why the long wave of economic depressions happens. It also explains why two different types of depressions alternate every 40 or 50 years.
When I first started blogging and writing about this idea, people who believed in long-waves couldn’t see it. In the late 1990s, some people were predicting that the long wave depression was imminent based on their ideas about a 50 or 60 year cycle. They didn’t understand that the deep recession of the 1970s was a Kondratiev dip, and that the timing between the long wave troughs is usually about 40 years unless something unusual happens.
Something unusual did happen in the 1700s, and that made the timing between the depressions longer. During the 1800s, they were about 50 years apart instead of 40 years apart. That is explained in the book.
Long-wave theory as it was developed historically didn’t differentiate between high-productivity growth and low-productivity growth depressions. The 80 year waves of productivity growth is important to understand.